Ryan Gosling, a prominent figure in Hollywood, faces a crucial moment with the upcoming release of Project Hail Mary. This film represents a significant opportunity for his Ryan Gosling box office future, coming after years of evolving from smaller, character-driven projects to large-scale blockbusters. Originally known for his breakthrough role in 2004’s The Notebook, Gosling gradually moved away from the heartthrob image, notably earning an Oscar nomination for the drama Half Nelson two years later.
In his pursuit of critical acclaim, Gosling collaborated with director Derek Cianfrance on Blue Valentine, The Place Beyond the Pines, and Only God Forgives, alongside acclaimed roles in Nicolas Winding Refn’s Drive and Adam McKay’s The Big Short. Despite strong performances, his next Oscar nod came only with Damien Chazelle’s La La Land in 2017. The actor balanced serious roles with lighter fare such as Crazy, Stupid, Love and the cult favorite The Nice Guys. His portrayal of Neil Armstrong in First Man marked a turning point but did not yield Oscar recognition or meet box office expectations.
Throughout his career, Gosling’s focus rarely centered on box office appeal. In the decade following The Notebook, only two of his films surpassed $100 million in ticket sales. However, the last ten years show a distinct change, with six out of eight widely released films crossing the $100 million mark, highlighting a deliberate shift in his career trajectory.
Adopting the Blockbuster Star Role in Recent Years
In recent years, Ryan Gosling has embraced blockbuster films, departing from his earlier preference for original and awards-driven projects. After underwhelming financial and awards results with Blade Runner 2049 and First Man, he pivoted toward high-profile, large-scale movies such as Netflix’s The Gray Man, the massive success Barbie, and the action reboot The Fall Guy. These roles showcase Gosling’s growing appeal in more spectacle-driven productions that attract younger audiences and generate significant online engagement.
Looking ahead, Project Hail Mary is poised to become a standout release in 2026 and presents another chance for Gosling to solidify his emerging blockbuster status. His forthcoming projects include Star Wars: Starfighter, an Ocean’s 11 prequel alongside Margot Robbie, and the possibility of Barbie 2. This range of roles underlines a clear departure from his early filmography and highlights a career embracing large-scale productions.
The last decade of Gosling’s movies illustrates his evolving box office success and critical reception:
- The Big Short (2015): $133 million gross, with 89% critic and 88% audience scores on Rotten Tomatoes.
- La La Land (2016): A major hit with $509 million in revenue, supported by 91% critic and 82% audience approval.
- Song To Song (2017): Underperformed at $1.8 million, receiving mixed reviews at 43% critics and 36% audiences.
- Blade Runner 2049 (2017): Earned $277 million with 88% approval from critics and audiences alike.
- First Man (2018): Brought in $105 million but had a lower audience score of 67% against 87% from critics.
- The Gray Man (2022): Did not generate box office revenue but earned a 45% critic score and 90% audience appreciation on Netflix.
- Barbie (2023): A breakout success with $1.4 billion and strong 88% critic and 83% audience ratings.
- The Fall Guy (2024): Recorded $181 million despite positive critical and audience reactions at 82% and 84%, respectively.
Reactions to these films have been varied. The Gray Man, despite being one of Netflix’s most-watched titles, failed to spark franchise momentum due to mixed responses. Barbie became a cultural and financial phenomenon, with Gosling’s performance earning him a Best Supporting Actor Oscar nomination. Meanwhile, The Fall Guy received critical praise but did not meet box office expectations. This mixed record intensifies the stakes for Project Hail Mary as a defining moment.
Despite his considerable popularity, especially online, and his willingness to embrace the eccentricities of blockbuster fame—evidenced by dressing as Beavis for The Fall Guy premiere and his memorable “I’m Just Ken” moment at the Oscars—Gosling’s true box office clout remains unproven.
Project Hail Mary as a Potential Turning Point for Gosling’s Stardom
Project Hail Mary offers Ryan Gosling an important chance to demonstrate that his name alone can draw audiences without relying on pre-established franchises. Unlike Star Wars: Starfighter or Barbie, where the underlying intellectual property (IP) is widely recognized, Project Hail Mary is based on Andy Weir’s best-selling sci-fi novel, which lacks the same broad blockbuster familiarity.
Barbie’s box office success partly stemmed from its association with the iconic Mattel toy brand, making it an IP-driven hit despite Gosling’s standout role that sparked numerous memes and online buzz. The upcoming Star Wars film similarly benefits from its extensive existing fan base, attracting viewers independent of its casting choices.
In contrast, Project Hail Mary hinges substantially on Gosling’s ability to carry the film as a true star vehicle. While the sci-fi visuals and alien elements offer additional appeal, the project primarily rests on his charisma and draw, marking a significant test of his appeal as a leading star who can command box office success without established franchise support.
This places Gosling, now 44, at a critical juncture in his career. Though he has enjoyed hits in the past, there remains no definitive evidence that he can reliably attract audiences on his own. In Hollywood today, such true A-list box office powerhouses are limited to a handful of actors including Tom Cruise, Leonardo DiCaprio, Brad Pitt, and Denzel Washington.
Given the positive early buzz and strong trailer for Project Hail Mary, anticipation is high for its March release. However, the example of The Fall Guy—whose promising start culminated in a modest $181 million worldwide total—serves as a cautionary reminder of how early enthusiasm can falter. Should Project Hail Mary succeed commercially, it could become the launchpad that firmly establishes Ryan Gosling as a top-tier box office star. If it falls short, discussions about his true blockbuster potential will likely resurface once again.
Main Cast of Project Hail Mary
- Ryan Gosling as Ryland Grace
- Sandra Hüller as Eva Stratt
- Milana Vayntrub as Olesya Ilyukhina
- Ken Leung as Yáo Li-Jie
