The 2025 awards season officially began on October 28 with the announcement of the Gotham Awards nominees, marking the first major event hinting at future Oscar contenders. Among the films and actors vying for recognition, the spotlight on Dwayne Johnson’s Best Actor campaign has met a significant obstacle, as the Gotham Awards largely favor different contenders this year.
Unlike later awards that share voter overlap with the Academy, the Gotham Awards focus on independent films, with nominations decided by rotating juries of critics, journalists, curators, and programmers, while winners are selected by separate groups of filmmakers and industry insiders. This distinctive setup means the absence of certain names from Gotham’s lists doesn’t necessarily mean a campaign is losing momentum, but it often sets the tone for subsequent award conversations.
How Gotham’s Nominations Are Shifting A24’s Oscar Strategies
The A24 drama If I Had Legs, I’d Kick You has stood out early in the race, setting a high bar with its critical recognition. Premiering at Sundance in January under Mary Bronstein’s direction, the film received praise, especially for Rose Byrne’s performance. Byrne’s acclaim was further solidified when she won the Silver Bear for Best Leading Performance at the Berlin Film Festival in February, cementing her status as a leading Oscar contender.
Maintaining visibility throughout the year is challenging, but the Gotham Awards confirmed that If I Had Legs, I’d Kick You remains a force to be reckoned with. The film earned four nominations: Best Feature, Best Director, Original Screenplay, and Outstanding Lead Performance. This breadth of recognition could elevate the film’s profile beyond initial expectations, reinforcing Byrne’s presence in the Best Actress discussion while providing an outside chance for awards in other categories.
The strong showing at the Gothams likely influences A24’s campaign decisions. While Byrne’s lead acting push was already underway, the critics’ votes may persuade the studio to reallocate additional support towards If I Had Legs, I’d Kick You. Such a shift would inevitably affect the allocation of resources from other contenders within A24’s lineup.
Dwayne Johnson’s Challenge Amid A24’s Competitive Campaigns
Dwayne Johnson currently leads the Best Actor conversation for his role in The Smashing Machine, a drama chronicling the turbulent life of MMA pioneer Mark Kerr. Directed and written by Benny Safdie, the film features Johnson as Kerr and Emily Blunt as Dawn Staples, Kerr’s then-wife. It explores Kerr’s ascent through the harsh early days of UFC, his struggle with addiction, and how fame impacted his personal life.
Johnson’s narrative received an encouraging start at the Venice Film Festival with a tearful standing ovation from the audience during the premiere. Despite this, The Smashing Machine suffered a significant blow when it underperformed at the box office, opening well below even conservative estimates. This financial disappointment was compounded by A24’s other major project, Marty Supreme, which attracted unexpected attention and acclaim as a surprise screening at the New York Film Festival.
Reports from IndieWire indicate that Marty Supreme missed the Gotham Awards deadline due to its later December release, which explains its absence from this early awards conversation. While it is common for established stars like Johnson or even Leonardo DiCaprio not to rely heavily on Gotham nods, the complete omission of The Smashing Machine from Gotham nominations is particularly damaging, especially as this was one of Johnson’s first chances to regain momentum following poor box office results.
Implications of Gotham’s Exclusion for Johnson’s Oscar Prospects
Though Johnson remains in contention, missing Gotham recognition weakens his film’s position and its ability to compete in categories beyond Best Actor. Should A24 concentrate its efforts and budget more heavily behind If I Had Legs, I’d Kick You, Johnson’s campaign may face increased difficulty securing wider support. Acting nominations for films lacking broader representation or positive reception rarely translate to wins, underscoring the uphill battle Johnson faces after his film’s commercial struggles.
Given the industry’s emphasis on campaign momentum, the Gotham Awards’ results might sway the studio’s strategy, forcing a critical choice about where to invest resources that could otherwise support Johnson’s bid. For the actor, whose performance remains widely praised, these campaign dynamics pose a fresh challenge amid an already competitive landscape.
Film Festival Trajectories and Industry Responses
The journeys of If I Had Legs, I’d Kick You and The Smashing Machine illustrate distinct paths within this awards season. Mary Bronstein’s film gained early acclaim, moving from Sundance to Berlin while building sustained buzz around Rose Byrne’s leading role. In contrast, Benny Safdie’s film, despite a powerful debut in Venice, has struggled to maintain audience engagement beyond initial festival excitement.
The dramas also differ in narrative scope. If I Had Legs, I’d Kick You tells the story of Linda coping with her child’s illness, a missing person case, a distant husband, and growing tensions with her therapist, weaving intense personal and psychological struggles. Meanwhile, The Smashing Machine offers a biographical view of Mark Kerr’s rise within the brutal early UFC scene, exposing addiction and the cost of fame on personal relationships.
The Road Ahead for Awards Campaigns
As campaign season continues, the Gotham Awards’ impact on awards momentum and studio strategies cannot be overlooked. While some contenders like Johnson may recover with further support from critics groups and industry insiders, the early Gotham omissions signify potential shifts in voting patterns and promotional focus.
Studios face ongoing challenges balancing resources to maximize their films’ visibility across the competitive awards landscape. A24’s dual campaigns exemplify this tension, as it may become necessary to prioritize one film’s broader push at the expense of others, directly affecting performers like Johnson.
Ultimately, the Gotham Awards set the tone for an intense awards race toward the 2026 Academy Awards, signaling which performances and films will command attention in the months to come. For Dwayne Johnson and The Smashing Machine, overcoming this early setback will require renewed momentum and strategic campaign adjustments within a crowded and evolving field.
