As Hollywood’s award season intensifies this November, movie enthusiasts are already speculating who will claim the next Academy Awards in early 2026. The burgeoning buzz centers on a potential upset in the Best Actor category, where Timothée Chalamet is emerging as a frontrunner against Leonardo DiCaprio, according to the latest Leonardo DiCaprio Oscar prediction trends.
Oscar Predictions Favor the Young Contender
Leonardo DiCaprio has won praise for his portrayal of the revolutionary Bob Ferguson in One Battle After Another, a role that has garnered enthusiastic acclaim and creative fan responses. Despite this, the current prediction market on Kalshi places DiCaprio’s chances of winning a second Oscar at 29% as of now.
Meanwhile, 29-year-old Timothée Chalamet leads the forecast with a 56% probability of winning Best Actor for his role in the highly anticipated ping-pong drama Marty Supreme, set to be released widely on December 25. Industry watchers are closely watching the buildup around Chalamet’s latest performance, which has generated strong early buzz despite not yet reaching broad audiences.
Competitive Landscape of Best Actor Contenders
Chalamet’s quest for his first Oscar follows previous bids for his roles in Call Me By Your Name (2017) and A Complete Unknown (2024), both of which missed out on the top award. Besides him and DiCaprio, other notable contenders include Michael B. Jordan at 6% for Sinners, Jesse Plemons at 6% for Bugonia, Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson at 4% for The Smashing Machine, and Wagner Moura also at 4% for The Secret Agent.
With the unpredictability typical of awards season, these odds are likely to fluctuate until the ceremony on March 15, 2026. Still, the current outlook gives Timothée Chalamet a clear edge over Leonardo DiCaprio, making for an intriguing battle in the Best Actor race.
The Significance of This Oscar Race
This projected shift could mark a milestone for Chalamet, potentially crowning him with his first Academy Award amid a competitive field that includes established stars and rising actors alike. As anticipation builds, both industry insiders and movie lovers will be keen to see whether the young actor’s momentum translates into Oscar gold, challenging the legacy of veterans like DiCaprio in one of the most closely watched categories.
“Leonardo DiCaprio has received rave reactions for his performance as the revolutionary Bob Ferguson in One Battle After Another.” – Movie lovers
I hate AMC A-List Halloween what do you mean youre Bob Ferguson and Sensei Sergio from One Battle After Another pic.twitter.com/cWUgasWPcr
— annika ✨ (@AnnikaPeterson) November 2, 2025
Halloween costume sneak peek pic.twitter.com/HqIOhB6V2f
— Bob Ferguson (@brand0_331) October 19, 2025
for halloween my dad & husband & daughter & i dressed up as bob and willa ferguson (leonardo dicaprio & chase infiniti) and no one recognized us 😭 PLEASE get off tiktok and go to the cinema for real culture!! it truly is one battle after another out there #obaa @onebattlemovie pic.twitter.com/9ro3sX6ZXI
— Tala (@tatulip) November 1, 2025
