Tom Cruise Oscar chances 2027 have become a central discussion point in the film world, following the announcement of his starring role in an upcoming project directed by Alejandro G. Iñárritu. After decades of ambitious performances and recent recognition with an Honorary Oscar at the 16th Governors Awards, Cruise’s prospects for finally winning a competitive Academy Award appear more promising than ever, especially as anticipation builds for the 99th Academy Awards.
Cruise’s Oscar Journey So Far
Tom Cruise has been in the Oscar conversation since his initial Best Actor nomination for
“Born on the Fourth of July”
in 1990, which marked the start of his relationship with Academy voters. He followed up with another Best Actor nomination for “Jerry Maguire” in 1997, then received a Best Supporting Actor nod for “Magnolia” in 2000. Despite his consistent presence, including a nomination as producer for “Top Gun: Maverick” in the Best Picture category, a competitive Oscar win has eluded him.
Cruise reached another career milestone recently when he was awarded an Honorary Oscar at the Governors Awards, recognizing his four decades of influence on the industry. However, this non-competitive honor does not carry the same prestige as a traditional, contested victory, something fans and colleagues alike hope he will still achieve.
The New Iñárritu Collaboration Boosting Cruise’s Odds
Looking ahead, Cruise is expected to be a major name in the awards discussion for the next Academy Awards cycle. This renewed momentum is due to his leading role in a currently untitled film directed by Alejandro G. Iñárritu, who also introduced Cruise’s Honorary Oscar tribute. The project, already completing production, has Cruise portraying a character striving to undo a global catastrophe that he himself triggered.
The film is set for release on October 2, 2026, by Warner Bros., timed strategically for awards consideration. Iñárritu’s previous works are well regarded by Oscar voters, and his ability to bring out award-winning performances is proven; he directed both Michael Keaton and Leonardo DiCaprio to Best Actor wins in consecutive years, with each win regarded as overdue by critics and peers.
Industry Support and Cruise’s Enduring Appeal
The sense that Tom Cruise is “due” for a competitive Academy Award could be a defining narrative in the coming year. As shown during his Governors Awards acceptance, Cruise remains a charismatic force in Hollywood, attracting respect across the board. In his acceptance speech, Cruise emphasized his unwavering passion for cinema, stating,
Making films is not what I do, it’s who I am.
Tom Cruise, actor
Cruise’s devotion to creating significant, theatrical experiences and his advocacy for the survival of cinema help maintain substantial goodwill among both his peers and the voting members of the Academy.
What the Next Oscars Could Mean for Cruise
With the combination of Alejandro G. Iñárritu’s directorial prestige, a compelling release timeline, and Cruise’s accumulated achievements, momentum is squarely behind Cruise as a frontrunner for a Best Actor nomination. The prevailing sentiment is that, should this film resonate as strongly as anticipated, a robust campaign will build around him—one motivated as much by his performance as by his enduring impact on the industry.
If Tom Cruise secures the competitive Oscar in 2027, it would represent a major industry milestone, not only closing the chapter on his decades-long pursuit but further solidifying his elite standing within Hollywood’s pantheon. For Cruz and his supporters, the 99th Academy Awards might finally provide the competitive recognition that has so far eluded him.
