Black Phone 2, in its theatrical run since October 17, 2025, is quickly approaching a prominent benchmark in the Kathryn Bigelow box office comparison, raising interest as to whether it can surpass historic titles despite its current momentum. The film, starring Mason Thames and Ethan Hawke and directed by Scott Derrickson, has now solidly exceeded its break-even mark, but faces a tense race to outpace Bigelow’s critically lauded Zero Dark Thirty in global earnings.
Box Office Performance Outpaces Expectations, but New Hurdles Emerge
After forty days in theaters, Black Phone 2 has outperformed modest expectations, especially for a film produced on a $30 million budget. Using the industry-standard 2.5x multiplier, the break-even point for the supernatural horror sequel stood at about $75 million. Drawing from data by The Numbers and Box Office Mojo, the film surpassed this level by reaching a global total of $130.4 million, resulting in a notable profit of $55.4 million over costs. This success has come at a time when post-pandemic box office recovery remains inconsistent, adding a layer of mild concern to its sustained theatrical presence.
Approaching the Zero Dark Thirty Milestone
Despite the strong haul so far, Black Phone 2 faces challenges as its box office momentum slows and its digital release impacts further earnings. The sequel is now drawing close to overtaking Kathryn Bigelow’s 2012 action thriller Zero Dark Thirty, which remains an enduring point of comparison at the box office. For context, Zero Dark Thirty amassed $95.7 million domestically and $37.1 million internationally, totaling $132.8 million worldwide.
Black Phone 2’s current breakdown shows $76.6 million from domestic ticket sales and $53.8 million from international markets, culminating in $130.4 million worldwide. That leaves a $2.4 million gap before it overtakes Zero Dark Thirty’s enduring record.
Competition with Recent Blockbusters Intensifies
Surpassing Zero Dark Thirty is not the only milestone Black Phone 2 is likely to achieve soon. The film is also close to matching the global performance of Bong Joon Ho’s Mickey 17, which currently stands at $133.3 million, and Ballerina, the Ana de Armas-led John Wick spin-off, at $137.2 million worldwide. To overtake Mickey 17 and Ballerina, the horror sequel will need to close gaps of $2.9 million and $6.8 million respectively. These targets, while in sight, are not assured given the film’s slowing momentum and the added challenge of digital availability diverting some audience interest away from theaters.
Storyline Resurgence Drives Audience Interest
The film, guided by Scott Derrickson’s direction, takes place years after the events of the original. Now 17, Finn—played by Mason Thames—continues to struggle with trauma from his harrowing escape from the kidnapper known as The Grabber, brought to life by Ethan Hawke. Tension builds when Gwen, Finn’s younger sister, portrayed by Madeleine McGraw, starts having chilling dreams featuring the masked abductor, implying that their ordeal may not be over.
Potential Impact on the Genre and Industry
The significance of Black Phone 2 potentially surpassing Kathryn Bigelow’s benchmark is not lost on the industry. While the numbers signal solid commercial demand for horror sequels, the close call and softening box office underline ongoing uncertainty in theatrical releases. If the movie receives a push during the upcoming weekend, it could soon claim new milestones, but the final outcome remains in question amidst diminishing returns and rising competition from digital streaming.
