Bette Davis’ journey to her first Oscar win began with disappointment yet ultimately reshaped her career’s trajectory. In 1934, refusing to be typecast as a conventional ingénue, Davis requested to portray the complex role of Mildred Rogers in the film adaptation of W. Somerset Maugham’s Of Human Bondage. This intense, unyielding character marked a stark contrast to typical 1930s female roles and won her critical acclaim.
Despite the acclaim, Davis was notably absent from the Oscar nominations for the role, igniting public outrage. The backlash compelled the Academy to permit write-in votes that year, yet she still placed fourth, trailing behind Claudette Colbert’s performance as Ellie Andrews in Frank Capra’s It Happened One Night, a film that spectacularly swept the “Big 5” Oscars including Best Picture and Actress.
Interestingly, Frank Capra had originally wanted Davis to star in It Happened One Night, but contract restrictions prevented a second loan-out in quick succession. Davis’ Oscar journey would not remain stalled for long; the following year, she won Best Actress for Dangerous, triumphing over Colbert this time around.
“It was true that even if the honor had been earned, it had been earned last year,”
Davis acknowledged in her autobiography The Lonely Life, adding
“There was no doubt that Hepburn’s performance deserved the award.”
Despite that recognition, Davis felt her win was more a consolation for the previous snub.
“These mistakes compound each other, like the original lie that breeds like a bunny. Now (Hepburn) should get it next year when someone else may deserve it.”
While Katharine Hepburn did not win the subsequent year, Davis set records by becoming the first actor to receive acting nominations five consecutive years (1938-1942) and amassing a total of ten acting nominations. This history demonstrates how past Oscar losses can influence future wins, a dynamic often overlooked by statistics but crucial in awards sentiment and momentum.
Michael Schulman of The New Yorker labeled this phenomenon the “Bunny Theory,” where preceding losses or wins feed into voters’ decisions in succeeding years. This pattern resurfaced notably in the early 2000s when Russell Crowe won Best Actor in 2001 for Gladiator after narrowly missing out the year before for The Insider. Crowe’s continued presence in Oscar races—nominated again in 2002 for A Beautiful Mind—highlighted how previous results influence voter perspectives, sometimes overshadowing newer contenders.
What Timothée Chalamet’s Oscar Journey Suggests for His Prospects
Timothée Chalamet’s quest for his first Oscar win appears shaped by the same underlying currents that buoy past contenders who rebounded from earlier disappointments. Considering recent awards season results, Chalamet leads a competitive Best Actor field with approximately a 25% chance to win, according to the Awards Tracker, though no frontrunner commands overwhelming odds.
Chalamet’s performance in Marty Supreme stands out as one of 2025’s most compelling, reinforcing his growing reputation. His prior acclaim includes significant wins at the Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards and being widely viewed as the runner-up for Best Actor the previous year for A Complete Unknown, where he also secured the Actor Awards prize.
Chalamet’s quick return to contention after his recent Bob Dylan role exemplifies how persistence and timing play into Oscar momentum. This is reminiscent of Leonardo DiCaprio’s experience before his landmark Best Actor win for The Revenant, which followed four earlier losses and absence from nominations for some of his acclaimed films. Such backstory fuels expectations that Chalamet’s persistence will pay off, especially since the Academy often rewards actors for sustained excellence over multiple years.
Examining the Best Actor Race Dynamics
The narrative of “It’s time” frequently influences Oscars outcomes, driving the momentum behind deserving candidates who have yet to secure the statue. Paul Thomas Anderson, an acclaimed filmmaker with 30 years and eleven nominations without a win, embodies this concept from a directing perspective. His film One Battle After Another exemplifies significant artistic achievement that could benefit from this sentiment heading into the 2026 Oscars.
Timothée Chalamet differs from figures like DiCaprio and Anderson primarily due to his youth. Had Chalamet clinched the Best Actor Oscar last year for A Complete Unknown, he would have become the youngest winner in that category, surpassing Adrien Brody’s record set in 2003 for The Pianist. Instead, Brody edged him out for the prize for The Brutalist, leaving Chalamet poised to become the second-youngest Best Actor winner if he triumphs this season.
Notably, Marty Supreme marks only Chalamet’s third acting Oscar nomination, contrasting with DiCaprio’s fifth nomination by the time of his first win. Nevertheless, the combined weight of prior recognition and award season success generates significant forward momentum.
In awards races, momentum can tip the scales for voters uncertain between close contenders. For those who believed Chalamet deserved a win last year, this support may be pivotal in securing his first Oscar come the March ceremony.
Oscar Losses as Launchpads for Career Milestones
History illustrates that early Oscar setbacks do not preclude later triumphs; instead, they often fuel motivation and build narratives essential for ultimate success. Davis’ Dangerous victory, initially perceived as a consolation, endures as a respected accomplishment more memorable than many of her contemporaries’ wins in the 1930s.
Her story stands as one of the earliest examples of how the Academy’s prior judgment can set the stage for future recognition—a dynamic Timothée Chalamet seems poised to benefit from in the coming Oscar season.
