Nearly two decades after Martin Scorsese finally won his long-awaited Oscar in 2006, director Paul Thomas Anderson finds himself on the verge of a similar breakthrough with his new film One Battle After Another. This Warner Bros. production, blending elements of action, comedy, and political allegory, hits theaters on September 26 and has stirred significant Oscar discussions, especially for its lead actor Sean Penn.
Anderson, the acclaimed filmmaker from Los Angeles known for masterpieces like Boogie Nights (1997), Magnolia (1999), and There Will Be Blood (2007), has accumulated 11 Oscar nominations without a win. One Battle After Another may represent the long-awaited award-winning moment if Warner Bros. can navigate the awards season effectively.
The Film’s Premise and Star-Studded Cast
Inspired loosely by Thomas Pynchon’s novel Vineland, the movie recounts the story of aging revolutionaries who reunite to rescue a friend’s daughter from an old adversary. Its ensemble casts include multiple Oscar winners and nominees such as Leonardo DiCaprio, Sean Penn, Benicio Del Toro, Regina Hall, and breakout talent Chase Infiniti.
Leonardo DiCaprio delivers a comedic turn as Bob Ferguson that may position the film for a Golden Globes comedy/musical submission, although his recent absence from Oscar nominations since Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (2019) places his chances on uncertain ground amid stiff competition.
Sean Penn takes on the role of Col. Steven J. Lockjaw, a charismatic white supremacist, offering what many consider his most powerful performance in 15 years. His portrayal evokes the complexity and magnetic intensity reminiscent of Christoph Waltz’s work in Inglourious Basterds (2008), combined with elements of Michael Fassbender and Peter Sellers. Given Penn’s previous Oscars for Mystic River (2003) and Milk (2008), he is the film’s most likely nominee, though a third win, especially in a supporting category, remains historically rare.
Notable Supporting Performances and Newcomers
Among the film’s women, Chase Infiniti shines as Willa, the daughter who is central to the plot, holding her own opposite Hollywood veterans. The way the studio positions her—as a lead or supporting actress—will be pivotal to her awards prospects and could mark a breakout moment.
Teyana Taylor’s role as mercenary Perfidia Beverly Hills marks a return to prominence after her acclaimed work in A Thousand and One (2023). Despite her commanding presence, limited screen time in the nearly three-hour film could hinder her chances. Meanwhile, Regina Hall delivers a nuanced performance as Deandra, portraying a Black woman navigating revolutionary betrayal through subtle body language and subtext. Hall’s 2018 New York Film Critics Circle Award win for Support the Girls underscores her growing industry respect and may bolster her case for an Oscar nod.
Warner Bros.’ High-Stakes Awards Campaign
The studio faces the challenge of managing multiple high-profile awards campaigns simultaneously, including Ryan Coogler’s vampire epic Sinners and Zach Cregger’s horror hit Weapons. Successfully marketing three major contenders will test Warner Bros.’ resources and strategic planning.
Historically, Warner Bros. last secured two Best Picture nominations in 2021 with Dune and King Richard, though Denis Villeneuve was notably left out of the Best Director race for Dune. This gap signals caution for Anderson’s directing chances. The studio has seen a steep decline in directing nominations since Todd Phillips’ 2019 nod for Joker, and the last Warner Bros. director winner was Alfonso Cuarón for Gravity in 2013.
Casting director Cassandra Kulukundis, a long-time collaborator of Anderson, attended the film’s Q&A, suggesting focus on the new casting Oscar category. Her ability to unite well-known actors and fresh faces is a signature element of Anderson’s work and could deliver recognition in this evolving category.
Budget and Box Office Expectations
With a reported budget between $130 million and $175 million, One Battle After Another is Anderson’s most expensive film to date, far surpassing his previous highest-grossing movie, There Will Be Blood, which earned $76 million. The film’s commercial performance will be closely watched, as any shortfall could jeopardize the momentum of its awards campaign.
Warner Bros. aims to sustain its trend of $40 million-plus opening weekends, but balancing critical acclaim against financial success remains a critical challenge. Awards narratives often shift unfavorably when box office returns disappoint, adding pressure on both the studio and the filmmakers.
Current Political Climate and Oscar Prospects
One Battle After Another arrives during a politically charged era, tackling themes of extremism, division, and violence in America through dark humor and sharp political commentary. The film explores white supremacist groups, revolutionary militias, and the societal impact caught between these opposing forces. Steven Spielberg has praised it as
“a reflection of what’s happening today,”
lending substantial prestige and awareness.
The film’s relevance to contemporary issues creates a potential double-edged sword—it may either galvanize the Academy as an essential artistic statement or alienate voters uneasy with its raw depiction of current tensions. Warner Bros. faces a strategic decision on whether to highlight this political dimension or take a more subdued approach during awards season. The lifting of the review embargo will offer initial insights into critical and audience reception, yet the unpredictable March voting climate remains an uncertainty.
Outlook for Oscar Nominations and Predictions
One Battle After Another exemplifies the sort of ambitious, star-studded, and thematically rich project that can energize Academy voters or prompt division. If Warner Bros. emphasizes Anderson’s overdue recognition, Sean Penn’s compelling villainy, and Regina Hall’s strong supporting role, the film could solidify its position as a major contender.
Ultimately, the question is whether the Academy is ready to honor Paul Thomas Anderson with his first Oscar. History demonstrates that an artist’s best work is not always the decisive factor; rather, the timing and collective will of voters often dictate success. For Anderson, this film might be the critical moment for acclaim.
Current Oscar Predictions Reflect the Film’s Strong Presence
As of September 11, 2025, One Battle After Another ranks among the top Oscar contenders, with nominations predicted in major categories including Best Picture, Best Director for Paul Thomas Anderson, Best Supporting Actor for Sean Penn, and Best Supporting Actress for Regina Hall. The adapted screenplay by Anderson and casting director Cassandra Kulukundis are also strong contenders. The film leads with 11 predicted nominations, positioning Warner Bros. as the studio with the highest number of prospective nods this season.
Other notable predicted nominees include:
Best Picture: Bugonia, Hamnet (predicted winner), A House of Dynamite, Is This Thing On?, Marty Supreme, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, Sinners, and Wicked: For Good.
Best Director: Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another, predicted winner), Jon M. Chu (Wicked: For Good), Ryan Coogler (Sinners), Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value), Chloé Zhao (Hamnet).
Best Actor: Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme), Daniel Day-Lewis (Anemone), Dwayne Johnson (The Smashing Machine, predicted winner), Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent), Jesse Plemons (Bugonia).
Best Actress: Jessie Buckley (Hamnet, predicted winner), Cynthia Erivo (Wicked: For Good), Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue), Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value), Emma Stone (Bugonia).
Supporting Actor: Idris Elba (A House of Dynamite), Paul Mescal (Hamnet), Sean Penn (One Battle After Another), Adam Sandler (Jay Kelly), Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value, predicted winner).
Supporting Actress: Odessa A’zion (Marty Supreme), Emily Blunt (The Smashing Machine), Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value), Ariana Grande (Wicked: For Good, predicted winner), Regina Hall (One Battle After Another).
Adapted Screenplay: One Battle After Another by Paul Thomas Anderson is among the frontrunners along with films like Bugonia and Hamnet.
Additional Award Categories Highlight Warner Bros. Strength
Warner Bros. is forecast to lead in several technical categories with nominations and likely wins in cinematography, film editing, sound, makeup, and hairstyling for One Battle After Another. The film’s score by Jonny Greenwood is another major contender. The studio’s casting work, led by Cassandra Kulukundis, is also receiving notable recognition amidst a growing appreciation for ensemble casting.
Other competitive categories across this Oscar season include animated feature, production design, costume design, original song, and documentary feature, where titles from a variety of studios including Focus Features, Neon, A24, and Universal Pictures also feature prominently.
Significance and What’s Next for One Battle After Another
One Battle After Another represents a critical juncture for Paul Thomas Anderson, Sean Penn, and Warner Bros. in navigating a crowded and competitive awards landscape. Its blend of star power, complex themes, and political resonance could either mark a triumphant return to Oscar glory or highlight the challenges of recognition in a divided industry.
As the film opens and critics’ reviews become available, the trajectory of its awards campaign will become clearer. The decisions Warner Bros. makes about emphasizing its political elements or focusing on stellar performances will play a key role in shaping voters’ opinions ahead of the 2026 Oscars. For now, anticipation is building around whether Anderson’s overdue Oscar win is finally within reach.
