The Smashing Machine, starring Dwayne Johnson as UFC champion Mark Kerr, opened on October 2 and faced a major setback during its second weekend in theaters. Despite its initial release, the film earned just $5.8 million domestically over the first three days, marking the worst opening weekend ever for a wide release headlined by Johnson. Now, projections estimate the movie will make only $1.8 million in its second weekend, resulting in a 69% drop and a fall from third to eighth place on the domestic box office chart.
Comparing The Smashing Machine’s Box Office Performance to Johnson’s Past Films
This decline represents not only the largest weekend drop for any film in the current top 10 but also ranks as the second-worst sophomore slump in Dwayne Johnson’s career. His previous lowest was 2005’s Doom, which experienced a 72.7% plunge. With The Smashing Machine’s steep drop, it marks Johnson’s worst decline in two decades. The film is only his 10th to see a second-week revenue loss exceeding 60%. To avoid falling into his bottom five worst second-week drops, the movie needs to earn $2.1 million—an outcome that would reduce the drop to approximately 63.8%, edging out 2013’s Fast & Furious 6, which declined by 63.9%.
Detailed Look at Dwayne Johnson’s Largest Week-Two Box Office Drops
The 10 films starring Dwayne Johnson with the steepest percentage declines during their second weekends are:
1. Doom (2005) – $15.5 million debut, -72.7% drop
2. The Smashing Machine (2025) – $5.8 million debut, -69% estimated drop
3. Southland Tales (2007) – $117,000 debut, -68.1% drop
4. Fast X (2023) – $67 million debut, -65.6% drop
5. Fast & Furious 6 (2013) – $97.4 million debut, -63.9% drop
6. Moana 2 (2024) – $139.8 million debut, -63.3% drop
7. Hercules (2014) – $29.8 million debut, -63.1% drop
8. Pain & Gain (2013) – $20.2 million debut, -62.9% drop
9. Fast Five (2011) – $86.2 million debut, -62.4% drop
10. The Fate of the Furious (2017) – $98.8 million debut, -61.1% drop
Positive Critical Response Offers a Possible Silver Lining
Despite disappointing box office numbers, The Smashing Machine has received generally strong reviews. It holds a Certified Fresh rating of 72% among critics on Rotten Tomatoes and a 77% approval rating with audiences. This level of praise could help build momentum and may influence buzz around Dwayne Johnson’s performance. If the praise translates into a Best Actor nomination at the 2026 Academy Awards, it could increase interest and drive more viewers to theaters.
Financial Outlook and Future Prospects for The Smashing Machine
Nevertheless, the film’s $50 million budget makes recouping costs in theaters uncertain. Given the current trajectory and dramatic box office drop, it appears unlikely the movie will break even during its theatrical run. While the underperformance of competing blockbuster Tron: Ares might provide some relief in terms of competition, The Smashing Machine must still overcome significant hurdles to regain box office strength.
