Sean Penn’s victory in the Best Supporting Actor category at the BAFTA Awards has energized discussions about his chances in the ongoing 98th Academy Awards season. His portrayal of Colonel Lockjaw in One Battle After Another has earned significant acclaim, but the BAFTA win alone may not secure his position in the Sean Penn Oscar race.
Despite being an early favorite following the film’s premiere, Penn has encountered challenges converting nominations into major wins. Other actors like Stellan Skarsgård and Jacob Elordi have claimed victories at prominent ceremonies, making the path to the Oscar less certain for Penn.
BAFTA Triumph Alters the Oscar Supporting Actor Contest but Isn’t Definitive
Sean Penn’s BAFTA win has undoubtedly disrupted the Best Supporting Actor category’s dynamics at the Oscars. With Stellan Skarsgård taking home the Golden Globe and Jacob Elordi winning the Critics’ Choice Award, this year marks only the eighth time all three honors went to different actors, a rarity in the 21st century last seen in 2016.
Historically, BAFTA has been an inconsistent indicator of Oscar success in this category. No actor has ever won the Best Supporting Actor Oscar based solely on a prior BAFTA win without securing a Globes or Critics’ Choice victory. This trend reflects on Penn’s situation given the split results across the major precursor awards this season.
Examples of this pattern include Tim Roth (Rob Roy, 1995), Paul Scofield (The Crucible, 1996), Tom Wilkinson (The Full Monty, 1997), Geoffrey Rush (Shakespeare in Love, 1998), Jude Law (The Talented Mr. Ripley, 1999), Jake Gyllenhaal (Brokeback Mountain, 2005), and Dev Patel (Lion, 2016). Each won a BAFTA after missing out at the Globes and Critics’ Choice Awards, only to fall short at the Oscars.
Winning the BAFTA certainly strengthens Penn’s claim but remains just one step in the Sean Penn Oscar race. To secure a third Oscar—he previously won Best Actor for Mystic River and Milk—he will need to capture another key victory in the upcoming awards.
Securing the Actor Awards Is Crucial for Penn to Become the Leading Contender
When the major precursor awards—the Globes, Critics’ Choice, and BAFTA—each favor different performers, the Screen Actors Guild Awards (SAG), now called the Actor Awards, often prove decisive in predicting the Oscar winner. There have been four occasions when the Oscar winner also took home the SAG Award, underscoring its significance.
Out of these, Robin Williams for Good Will Hunting in 1997 and Michael Caine for The Cider House Rules in 1999 won only SAG as their precursor, while Cuba Gooding Jr. for Jerry Maguire in 1996 and Mahershala Ali for Green Book in 2016 won both SAG and Critics’ Choice before clinching the Oscar. By contrast, the Globes and Critics’ Choice have only once each been the sole precursor aligning with the Oscar in recent history, and BAFTA has never been the lone predictor.
This pattern implies that for Sean Penn to emerge as the top choice in the supporting actor race, claiming the Actor Awards on March 1 is essential. Such a win would signal strong industry support and give him a pivotal edge over competitors like Jacob Elordi ahead of the Academy’s final decision.
