The 79th BAFTA Awards held a night of unexpected twists that have intensified the race toward the Oscars, with the final voting phase commencing on February 26. A major surprise came when Timothée Chalamet lost the leading actor award, a setback that could influence voter perceptions in the coming weeks.
Dominance by ‘One Battle After Another’ and Its Oscar Implications
Paul Thomas Anderson’s film One Battle After Another was the evening’s standout, securing six BAFTAs including best film, director, adapted screenplay, supporting actor for Sean Penn, cinematography, and editing. The film’s success in both headline and technical categories reinforces its position as a front-runner for best picture at the upcoming Oscars. Winning in below-the-line categories such as cinematography and editing is essential for building momentum within the sophisticated Oscar voting community.
Despite this dominance, BAFTA results introduced significant unpredictability rather than providing clear-cut outcomes. While One Battle After Another strengthened its footing, other categories delivered surprising changes, injecting uncertainty ahead of final Oscar ballots.
Ryan Coogler’s ‘Sinners’ Breaks Historic Ground
Sinners, directed by Ryan Coogler, earned three BAFTA awards, including original screenplay, supporting actress for Wunmi Mosaku, and original score. Coogler’s win for original screenplay marks the first time a Black screenwriter has received this recognition at BAFTA, establishing a historic milestone that has energized the film’s awards campaign.
This victory also elevates Sinners in Oscar considerations, as only one Black screenwriter—Jordan Peele—has previously won the Oscar for original screenplay. Mosaku’s supporting actress award further advances the film’s above-the-line visibility, complementing Anderson’s film’s below-the-line momentum and setting a competitive landscape among contenders.
Together, One Battle After Another and Sinners exemplify a bifurcated race, with the former dominating technical categories and the latter gaining strength in key artistic and performance areas. However, the landscape remains open as other awards and voter preferences evolve in the coming days.
Timothée Chalamet’s Unexpected Defeat and Its Consequences
One of the evening’s most notable upsets was Timothée Chalamet’s loss in the leading actor category to Robert Aramayo for his role in Kirk Jones’ Tourette’s drama I Swear. Aramayo, who also claimed the EE Rising Star Award—the only BAFTA honor decided by public vote—has momentum poised for next year’s Oscar race, as I Swear will be eligible for the 99th Academy Awards following its U.S. release.
Chalamet had been considered a clear favorite after prior wins at the Critics Choice Awards and Golden Globes for his work in Josh Safdie’s sports dramedy. This BAFTA loss disrupts expectations and could influence voters during the critical final stages of Oscar decision-making, marking an impactful moment in the actor’s award season trajectory.
‘Marty Supreme’ Faces Historic Snub Amid Award Season Flux
The film Marty Supreme encountered a harsh setback by receiving no wins from its eleven nominations, tying the record for the most losses in a single BAFTA ceremony. Such a comprehensive shutout has raised questions about the film’s chances moving into Oscar season.
Meanwhile, attention now shifts to the upcoming SAG Awards, which might provide clearer indicators of likely Oscar winners. Ethan Hawke is widely tipped to win the leading actor SAG award for his portrayal of Lorenz Hart in Blue Moon. Historically, no performer has achieved back-to-back SAG victories in the same category, meaning a win for Hawke would alter the trajectory against last year’s winner, Chalamet.
Jessie Buckley’s Steady Path in Leading Actress Race
Jessie Buckley secured the best leading actress award for Hamnet, which also won the outstanding British film category. Unlike other races that have seen sharp volatility, Buckley’s campaign has maintained steady momentum, positioning her as a clear frontrunner for the Oscar in her category.
The Chaotic Landscape of Supporting Acting Categories
The BAFTAs highlighted significant fragmentation within the supporting actor and actress races, demonstrating a genuine state of unpredictability rather than a predictable consensus among industry voters. So far, there have been three different winners in these categories across the Golden Globes, Critics Choice Awards, and BAFTAs—an occurrence last closely mirrored during 2004.
That year featured divergent winners: Clive Owen and Natalie Portman took the Globes, Thomas Haden Church and Virginia Madsen claimed the Critics Choice Awards, and the SAG Awards went to eventual Oscar winners Morgan Freeman and Cate Blanchett. The BAFTAs later sided with Owen and Blanchett, and the SAG Awards ultimately forecasted the actual Oscar winners, underscoring the SAG’s predictive strength.
This year’s supporting actor category includes Sean Penn’s first-ever BAFTA win for his role as Colonel Lockjaw in One Battle After Another, Jacob Elordi’s Critics Choice victory for Frankenstein, and Stellan Skarsgård’s Golden Globe for Sentimental Value. If Benicio del Toro captures the SAG Award, the category would feature four distinct winners across major precursors, last seen in the 2020 Oscars season amid the pandemic.
Notably, Delroy Lindo remains a contender for supporting actor honors for his work in Sinners, despite not receiving nominations in precursor awards. Historical parallels suggest that winning neither precursor prizes nor nominations is not necessarily fatal to final Oscar chances.
Challenges Facing Stellan Skarsgård and Supporting Actress Contenders
Skarsgård’s loss at the BAFTAs carries weight given the prominence of his role as Gustav Borg in Sentimental Value, which won best non-English-language film. He would have been the first actor since Regina King in 2018 to take a major acting award without prior SAG or BAFTA wins or nominations, emphasizing the rarity of this achievement.
The supporting actress category remains equally unsettled, with Teyana Taylor earning the Golden Globe, Amy Madigan winning the Critics Choice but missing a BAFTA nomination, and Wunmi Mosaku now holding a BAFTA. This lack of consensus means the SAG Awards and final Oscar ballot may ultimately provide decisive clarity.
Technical Achievements Shape Oscar Voter Preferences
Outside of acting and headline races, craft categories signaled firm preferences. Frankenstein swept costume design, makeup and hair, and production design, ensuring its technical prowess is noted among Oscar voters. Sentimental Value earned recognition as the best film not in the English language, complementing wins by The Secret Agent at the Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards.
In documentary categories, Mr. Nobody Against Putin triumphed over the favored The Perfect Neighbor. The animated feature award went to Zootopia 2, despite the exclusion of KPop Demon Hunters, which could not qualify due to release timing but had recently dominated the Annie Awards.
Final Phase Leading Into Oscars Remains Turbulent Yet Defining
The awards season concludes with a battlefield that is simultaneously clearer and more unsettled. One Battle After Another appears as the main target in the best picture fight, Jessie Buckley is a strong contender in lead actress, and Ryan Coogler’s Sinners gains significant traction in original screenplay. Most other categories remain wide open, setting the stage for an electrifying finish to the season.
Oscar final voting takes place from February 26 to March 5, ahead of the 98th Academy Awards on March 15, hosted by Conan O’Brien on ABC.
Updated Oscar Predictions as of February 22, 2026
Best Picture: Sinners (Warner Bros.) — Producers Zinzi Coogler, Sev Ohanian, and Ryan Coogler
Director: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.)
Actor: Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon (Sony Pictures Classics)
Actress: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (Focus Features)
Supporting Actor: Delroy Lindo, Sinners (Warner Bros.)
Supporting Actress: Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (Warner Bros.)
Original Screenplay: Sinners (Warner Bros.) — Ryan Coogler
Adapted Screenplay: One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) — Paul Thomas Anderson
Casting: Sinners (Warner Bros.) — Francine Maisler
Animated Feature: KPop Demon Hunters (Netflix) — Maggie Kang, Chris Appelhans, and Michelle L.M. Wong
Production Design: Frankenstein (Netflix) — Tamara Deverell and Shane Vieau
Cinematography: One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) — Michael Bauman
Costume Design: Frankenstein (Netflix) — Kate Hawley
Film Editing: One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) — Andy Jurgensen
Makeup and Hairstyling: Frankenstein (Netflix) — Mike Hill, Jordan Samuel, and Cliona Furey
Sound: F1 (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros.) — Gareth John, Al Nelson, Gwendolyn Yates Whittle, Gary A. Rizzo, and Juan Peralta
Visual Effects: Avatar: Fire and Ash (20th Century Studios) — Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon, and Daniel Barrett
Original Score: Sinners (Warner Bros.) — Ludwig Göransson
Original Song: “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters (Netflix) — EJAE, Mark Sonnenblick, Joong Gyu Kwak, Yu Han Lee, Hee Dong Nam, Jeong Hoon Seon, and Teddy Park
Documentary Feature: The Perfect Neighbor (Netflix) — Geeta Gandbhir, Alisa Payne, Nikon Kwantu, and Sam Bisbee
International Feature: Sentimental Value (Norway) (Neon) — Directed by Joachim Trier
Animated Short: The Girl Who Cried Pearls (National Film Board of Canada) — Chris Lavis and Maciek Szczerbowski
Documentary Short: All the Empty Rooms (Netflix) — Joshua Seftel and Conall Jones
Live Action Short: Two People Exchanging Saliva (Canal+/The New Yorker) — Alexandre Singh and Natalie Musteata
Projected Leading Films by Number of Wins: Sinners (6), One Battle After Another (4), Frankenstein (3), KPop Demon Hunters (2)
